明年一月底就要國會改選了，因為加拿大是政黨政治，來自英國，一但國會通過不信任投票，政府就下台，國會就改選了，這次偏右的保守黨與偏左的新民主黨聯合，加上魁北克獨立黨的支持，中間派的自由黨政府就垮台，過完聖誕與新年假期，就會有新的選舉活動，與台灣固定任期的方式完全不一樣。
自由黨目前是少數黨執政，需要與其他黨聯合，才能過半，主導國會，自從今年中開始執政，為了爭取成為多數，就一直與新民主黨合作，被迫納入了一些該黨的社會福利主張，增加很多社會福利支出，例如準備提供免費幼兒照顧等等，現在確定要改選了，自由黨更是趁還在位，開始大灑社會支出，趁機拉攏選民，這跟台灣比發老人年金一樣，看誰給的多。
我們公司同事很多支持保守黨，這好像是多倫多商業界的共同現象，但是一般百性支持自由黨的多，聽說移民的支持率更高，中低收入或是老年人則支持社會福利傾向高的新民主黨，各黨的支持率在更地方都不同，例如卑斯省的新民主黨支持率最高，產石油的亞伯特省好像是偏右的保守黨的天下，加拿大的最大城市多倫多所在的安大略省則是自由黨主政，法語區魁北克省那就偏向他們自己的獨立黨，大西洋的省份我就不清楚了，未來還需要補充。
從台灣來看加拿大的政治，感覺無聊多了，少了台灣政客那種歇斯底理的演出與街頭表演，選舉期間實在安靜，沒有注意就結束了，這次我一定要仔細觀察，了解徹底一些。
今天在公司，同事談的都是選舉，保守黨真的如民調預測，果然勝選，一周或兩周之後，加拿大就有了新的執政黨。
讓人意外的是保守黨在魁北克省的進展，從上次選舉毫無席次，到這次有十席。除了讓魁北克獨立黨得票率倒退到42個百分點左右，還讓自由黨的在該省幾乎江山盡失。
保守黨在安大略省也大有長進，加上平原三省的大本營仍然大勝，總共席次領先自由黨21席，確定執政。自由黨的 Paul Martin 當晚就表示辭去黨主席的職位，非常有擔當的表示負責，台灣上次像這樣負責的主席是誰?我想不起來。
人力資源部長，Blinda，上次從保守黨變節加入自由黨的竟然還是當選，選前以為她會為陣前倒戈付出敗選的代價，結果仍然囊括原來選區的自由黨選票，可能加上女性選民，或是她父親公司員工的支持，仍然勝選。我一個同事為她助選，選前還愁苦的說很不樂觀，今天看她神采飛揚，非常得意，昨夜還狂歡慶祝，
不知道這次的投票率有多高，選前報紙還在說會跌到45%。可見選民對政治的冷感，從台灣來看，加拿大的選舉實在太平淡無味了，不知道這算不算另一種進步？
因為是少數執政，必須要與其他黨妥協，相信保守黨的政策綱領不會有太大的揮灑空間，因為需要與其他黨合作，法案才可能通過，這裡的政黨不像台灣的民進黨，不肯妥協，導致國會空轉。
過去加拿大的少數執政都不超過18個月，也許下一個選舉又會很快到來。
今天報紙頭條都是昨天電視辯論的一些評論，整體而言，都相信執政的自由黨被保守黨打敗，目前支持率已經落後超過10個百分點(39% vs. 27% ) ，保守黨往超過半數邁進。
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`Significant growth' in Ontario, Quebec
The survey, conducted by EKOS Research Associates for the Toronto Star and La Presse, shows Stephen Harper's Conservatives have sailed into majority government territory after a stunning week of rising popularity, largely at the expense of the Liberal party.
The EKOS survey of 1,240 Canadians through the weekend and yesterday found 39.1 per cent support for the Conservatives. The Liberals had 26.8 per cent support; the NDP 16.2 per cent; the Bloc Québécois 12.6 per cent; and Green party 4.6 per cent.
"This is the breakthrough Harper has been waiting for," EKOS president Frank Graves said.
In Ontario, the Conservatives have widened the gap to a 10-percentage-point lead over the Liberals. Of the 518 Ontarians surveyed, 43.8 per cent supported the Tories, 33.5 per cent the Liberals, 16.2 per cent the NDP, and 5.4 per cent the Greens.
Even in Quebec, the Conservatives are ahead of the Liberals. A total of 330 people were surveyed in that province and 19.1 per cent threw their support behind the Tories, compared with 17.4 per cent for the Liberals.
The Bloc, however, remains miles ahead with 52.4 per cent.
"The Conservatives' gains are nationwide, but their most significant growth is in Ontario, where they have surpassed the Liberals in their traditional heartland, and in Quebec, where they are now the leading federalist alternative to the Bloc Québécois," Graves said.
The national poll numbers are considered accurate within 2.8 percentage points 19 times out of 20. The margin of error in Ontario was 4.3 percentage points.
EKOS's Paul Adams said Harper's popularity is driving the surge. When those surveyed were asked who had the most positive vision for the future, the Conservative leader received 32 per cent support. Prime Minister Paul Martin had 20 per cent, the NDP's Jack Layton 16 per cent, and Bloc Leader Gilles Duceppe 10 per cent. "None of the above" registered 10 per cent and 12 per cent said they didn't know.
But premature talk of winning a majority of Parliament's 308 seats spooks the Conservatives. A party would have to win 155 seats to win a majority.
At dissolution, there were 133 Liberals in the House of Commons. The Tories held 98 seats, the Bloc Québécois 53 and the NDP 18. There were four Independents and two vacancies.
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`This is the breakthrough Harper has been waiting for.' EKOS President Frank Graves |
"I'm certainly not going to be drawn into any questions that can be used to have me making predictions," Harper said during last night's English-language leaders' debate.
"My role here is not to be a political analyst. My role here is to explain to Canadians why we need a new government."
Following stories Sunday in the Star and the Toronto Sun about Harper hinting at a majority, right-wing blogs were abuzz with dark — and unsubstantiated — suggestions of a mainstream media conspiracy to stall the Tories' momentum.
Ironically, hours after refusing to rule out a Tory majority win, Harper criticized EKOS by name while chatting with reporters aboard his campaign plane in Hamilton on Saturday.
"They are, in my view, the least believable," he said. "Our people feel the momentum, but it is a statistical dead heat. ... There is over two weeks to go and a lot of things can happen. ... There is no certainty."
Graves said the "wild card" in the campaign now is how Canadians react to the potential of a Harper government — minority or majority.
"What happens when Canadians fully realize the Conservatives' current potential?" Graves asked.
"Will there be a bandwagon effect, as there was for Brian Mulroney in the 1984 campaign after he surged into the lead? Or will Harper succumb to a whiplash as he did in 2004 with many voters recoiling from the prospect of a Tory victory after a serious Liberal onslaught in the last weeks of the campaign."
On June 16, 2004 in Niagara Falls, Harper boasted there were "no safe Liberal seats for the Liberals any more," and said the Tories could win a majority. Less than two weeks later, the Liberals won a minority government.
The Liberals received 36.7 per cent of the popular vote in the June 28, 2004 election. The Conservatives garnered 29.6 per cent of the vote, the NDP 15.7 per cent, the Bloc 12.4 per cent and the Greens 4.3 per cent.
Graves said the apparent Conservative breakthrough in Quebec is "especially astonishing," heralding the possible return of the Tories as a truly national party.
But he warned that because the Harper Conservatives are poised to win some seats in Quebec, the media spotlight will be on the aloof Harper more than ever before. Graves stressed that the party's growth in Quebec is inherently fragile.
With files from Robert Benzie
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